Efficient Market Hypothesis
The theory that asset prices fully reflect all available information at all times.
The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is the cornerstone of modern finance. It claims that stock prices always incorporate all available information, making it impossible to 'beat the market' consistently through analysis, market timing, or insider knowledge (strong form). Three forms: Weak: Prices reflect all past trading data (technical analysis doesn't work). Semi-strong: Prices reflect all public information (fundamental analysis doesn't work). Strong: Prices reflect all information, public and private (insider trading doesn't work — empirically false). Implications: If markets are efficient, active management is futile — just buy index funds. Criticisms: Behavioral biases (overreaction, momentum), market anomalies (value premium, size effect), and bubbles/crashes challenge EMH. Most evidence supports semi-strong efficiency for liquid large-caps, but inefficiencies exist in small-caps and emerging markets.
Portfolio Alpha (Jensen's)
Excess return after adjusting for market risk — the holy grail of active management.
Sharpe Ratio
Risk-adjusted return: excess return divided by volatility.
Efficient Frontier
The set of portfolios offering the highest return for each level of risk.
Covariance Matrix
Captures how asset returns move together — the foundation of diversification.
Portfolio Volatility
Standard deviation of portfolio returns — total risk including diversification effects.
Minimum Variance Portfolio
The portfolio with the lowest possible volatility.