Covariance Matrix
The covariance matrix is the core input for portfolio optimization: it shows how asset returns co-move. Diagonal elements are variances (each asset's standalone volatility), while off-diagonal elements are covariances (how pairs move together). For example, stocks and bonds often have low or negative covariance — when stocks fall, bonds may rise — enabling diversification. Diversification benefit: A portfolio of two 20%-volatility assets with 0.5 correlation has ~17.3% volatility, less than either asset alone. The matrix is symmetric (Cov(A,B) = Cov(B,A)) and typically estimated from historical returns, but estimation error is huge—small sample changes can radically alter results. Advanced methods (shrinkage, factor models) improve stability.
| \hat{\sigma}_{ij} | Estimated covariance between assets i and j |
| r_{i,t} | Return of asset i at time t |
| \bar{r}_i | Mean return of asset i |
| T | Number of observations (default 252 days = 1 year) |
- Returns are stationary (stable over time)
- Sample size is sufficient for reliable estimates
- No structural breaks in correlation regime
- Simple sample estimator (no shrinkage)